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  1. #1
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Covid-19 perspectives

    Quote Originally Posted by Z'mnypit View Post
    Alabama ... all were packed.
    The risk is real, even if local people are not 'seeing' it.


  2. #2
    TwoBurgers's Avatar
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    Cool Va is open

    Quote Originally Posted by cjk6119 View Post
    In NC all ramps are closed. No were to go riding or fishing.
    I was on Lake Anna Sunday to test the skis (private ramps). It was a bit cool, but we had shorty suits on just in case. There were a few fishing boats and a few skis out. Certainly not packed, but LKA doesn't get busy until June. There's a group ride next weekend, and as best I can tell, we are within the Governor's rules as long as we stay six feet apart. Of course, I've been sneaking in a few 0 feet apart sessions with the GF...
    Personally, I feel all of this virus hysteria has been WAY overblown. My GF is a pediatrician and agrees. The uninformed masses are relying on the "politics of media" messaging and not common sense.
    Chris
    Last edited by TwoBurgers; 04-18-2020 at 01:26 PM. Reason: ramp info

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by TwoBurgers View Post
    Personally, I feel all of this virus hysteria has been WAY overblown. My GF is a pediatrician and agrees. The uninformed masses are relying on the "politics of media" messaging and not common sense.
    Chris
    Yes Chris,,,More people die in car accidents and by the Flu each year, the numbers dont support the reactions they are taking. It has made it great for me jet skiing on Jordan Lake, hardly anyone on the water and the fishing has been good too. Be safe there Chris
    Take Care Cj

  4. #4
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjk6119 View Post
    ... More people die in car accidents and by the Flu each year .... Be safe ...
    This thing has not been running for a year, not yet.

    This chart shows what makes it different.



    It is not ‘like’ the flu, it is not as dangerous as vehicle collisions. It is more.

    In the places where it has already taken hold, the only thing limiting the steepness of the slope is the changes in public behavior. The widespread shutdowns and the self-isolation are the thing that creates the ‘curve’.

    The next few weeks will reveal how effective the public behavior changes are. The rates of new cases hopefully will peak and begin declining. Even then, the decline depends heavily on continued minimal spread practices across the public. Change the behavior and the charts will show upward inflection.

    Right now there are unknowns everywhere.
    We do not know when widespread testing will actually become available. *
    We do not know whether recovery from Covid-19 infection creates reliable immunity, or not. Nor for how long.
    We do not know when a reliable and effective treatment for infected people will become available.
    We do not know whether future treatments for infection will be effective for everyone or just some subsets of people.
    We do not know what effect each degree of ‘opening up’ will have on future infection rates.

    What is known is that less public movement and more self-isolation reduces spread. Not just risk of spread, actual spread.

    * We also know that we do not have reliable methods to trace prior proximity contacts (going back maybe two weeks) after someone is discovered to be a carrier. Especially contact with other people who were simply nearby the spreader at some time, but not necessarily people ‘known’ to them.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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  6. #5

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    Where did you get that chart or is that what you have graphed with a program?

    CJ

  7. #6
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjk6119 View Post
    Where did you get that chart ... ?
    ...
    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publi...ashes-not-like

    I received that chart via an indirect vector, but the source was marked on the chart, lower right corner.

  8. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by K447 View Post
    https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publi...ashes-not-like

    I received that chart via an indirect vector, but the source was marked on the chart, lower right corner.
    At first,... I thought you made that graph to heckle me some. That was a good informative article and a good read, changed my view point. Went into some detail. Thank you for taking the time to source it.

    Take Care
    C J

  9. #8
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjk6119 View Post
    ... to heckle ...
    I do not heckle.

  10. #9
    isolation does not reduce the spread it only slows the spread down so the hospitals dont get over run...the only way to over come it is by herd immunity...that is the theory why california has had so few deaths. its believed to have started there before any one knew what it was, many months ago. many people there were sick like they never been sick before and the doctors said it wasnt the flew. the only way to beat it is by letting it run the course for now. thats a theory ive heard...unless a vaccine can be developed.

  11. #10
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yellow jacket View Post
    isolation does not reduce the spread it only slows the spread down so the hospitals dont get over run...the only way to over come it is by herd immunity...that is the theory why california has had so few deaths. its believed to have started there before any one knew what it was, many months ago. many people there were sick like they never been sick before and the doctors said it wasnt the flew.

    the only way to beat it is by letting it run the course for now.

    thats a theory ive heard...unless a vaccine can be developed.
    Thesis, not theory. Probably not even a thesis.

    It is entirely unclear whether prior Covid-19 infection and recovery provides significant immunity.
    It is unknown whether immunity, if it occurs, will be consistent across varying population groups.
    it is unknown how long the immunity effect might last, for an individual or for a population group.

    Herd immunity, if it happens at all, is a long way away from anytime soon.

    Isolation, widespread mask use, reduced travel, limited grouping, these are the methods that are known to have real effect. Indeed, this behavior change is what creates the expected curve, plateau and hoped for downward slope in new cases.

    Widespread and reliable rapid testing will help, when it becomes available. That is not yet possible.

    It will be a long time before this thing is well understood. Until then, the path forward must be one of caution.

    We are all operating with limited data, limited information, and certainly limited knowledge.

    We do not yet know if a vaccine is actually possible. If it is, it may not be universal.
    The SARS-CoV-2 virus may be (and probably is) capable of frequent and rapid mutation, potentially undermining the effectiveness of vaccine immunization.

    Nobody is happy about the self-isolation, the restrictions on movement and gatherings, and so on. The virus does not care how we feel about all that. It only cares about transmission, replication, and expansion to more hosts. It is built for it, it is effective at it.

    It makes people really, really sick, and can kill many of them. People we care about.

    Our primary tool is greatly restricting the rate and extent to which it can find more human hosts.
    Do not become a host.
    Do not become a carrier to others.
    Do not encourage others to risk it.

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