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  1. #21
    butterbean_29512's Avatar
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    For everyone that says we need to keep the economy shuttered, I challenge them to give us a sustainable, workable way to keep the economy shuttered. We cannot continue this. They always have said "slow the spread." It does not mean STOP the spread. Everyone is gonna get it eventually, herd immunity is the only answer.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by butterbean_29512 View Post
    For everyone that says we need to keep the economy shuttered, I challenge them to give us a sustainable, workable way to keep the economy shuttered. We cannot continue this. They always have said "slow the spread." It does not mean STOP the spread. Everyone is gonna get it eventually, herd immunity is the only answer.
    I think it should be if you want to stay home then stay home otherwise back to work.


  3. #23
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by butterbean_29512 View Post
    ... sustainable, workable way to keep the economy shuttered. We cannot continue this. ...

    ... Everyone is gonna get it eventually, herd immunity is the only answer.
    Quote Originally Posted by seabrook View Post
    I think it should be if you want to stay home then stay home otherwise back to work.
    This is more a reply to the ideas rather than specific posters.

    Herd immunity effect for Covid-19 is unknown.
    Unknown whether it is even a thing for Covid-19.
    Unknown how long it might last in an individual, if it occurs.
    Unknown how consistent it might be, or not be, across different segments of the population.

    Right now, herd immunity is a wish. A risky bet. Not a certainty. And it comes with a high cost.

    Generally speaking, natural spread of a virus does not reach 100% of the population. If the herd immunity effect is strong then the spread tends (if it acts like prior coronaviruses) to level out circa 60-70% of the population. And then we live with the thing as yet another ongoing threat. Until an effective vacine is widely applied.

    Individual opinions are mostly irrelevant. Individual economic situations will vary, and some are certainly suffering a lot more than others.

    A primary factor is the spread aggression of the virus itself, which we are still grappling with understanding. We still do not have widespread testing in the US and therefore most of the data is incomplete and involves estimates and sometimes actually guessing.

    What IS fairly well understood is the degree to which infected carriers without symptoms and carrriers who do not yet feel ill can cause spread. Someone who is a carrier and moves around or interacts with lots of people can spread it widely. And then those victims, before they realize they are sick, further spread it around their families and others they connect with.

    Right now there is very limited ability to backtrack and identify the other people a spreader may have infected. It takes a lot of effort to do the back tracing and it is never 100%. The virus essentially travels wherever we go, when we go, and is good at being hard to nail down.

    That means that 'going back to work' when done across large groups of people will inevitably accelerate the spread. How much spread acceleration, how many more victims? Those are difficult questions.

    Essentially the question becomes - how many additional deaths and terribly ill people are worth the risk of releasing people to work, travel, and generally move around more? What is the math - individual income vs. death (of other people), GDP vs. sickness?

    Without effective and widely available treatment, without vaccine, without widely available testing, without herd immunity, how much economic pain is worth enduring to minimize deaths and serious illness for (many) thousands of other people?

    Right now we are in the middle of this thing. Not near the end. Every calcuation about 'too much' and 'too long' needs to include the math on 'acceptable' levels of future sickness and deaths.

  4. #24
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Some may find these interesting. Updated daily at the links.
    http://www.asymco.com/2020/04/20/cov...oard-april-20/

    It charts the degree of mobility restriction (black line) vs. the degree of Covid-19 spread (cases, in red).

    Implied in the chart is the degree to which citizens are either obeying the reduced mobility rules or voluntarily self-isolating and minimizing their individual risk of exposure and spread, even where the official restrictions are moderate.

    International

    Higher resolution version of the chart can be found here.

    For the US the chart 'curve' can be misleading, as certain areas level out or begin decline while other areas ramp up in case loads and spread rates. This averaging across the entire country obscures what is happening in each region.

    Covid-19 US charts
    http://www.asymco.com/2020/04/20/cov...oard-april-20/


    http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/upl...0.21.00-AM.png

    Note how some countries in the above chart appeared to be 'turning down' and now are at higher rates that just a week or two ago.

    This chart below was privately done (not by me) and is a week or so old now. I do not have the original source link at hand. It provides a potential timeline for future events and possible projected outcomes.

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

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Views:	108 
Size:	218.6 KB 
ID:	460565   Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by K447; 04-20-2020 at 10:55 AM.

  5. #25
    steve45's Avatar
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    I don't live in fear. Every year in the U.S. we lose close to 50,000+ people to the flu. In my community of 130,000 people, we average almost one highway death per week.

    I'm incredulous about the hysteria that has been generated because of this virus. In my view, the media is trying to create fear & panic for political reasons. I know people that will likely go bankrupt because of this, and what for? So far, we've had 3 people die in our community because of the virus or complications. Most of the people that were infected were not even admitted to the hospital, they were sent home to self-quarantine. Half of the infected people have now been declared well.

    For the record, I'm in the 'high risk' group; pushing 70, on blood pressure meds, pre-diabetic. And I go to work everyday.

    Oh, yea, I previously reported that my lake was closed, but that was wrong. It is OPEN. I'm told that there were TWO boats on it this past weekend, 6 square miles of surface area.

    LET'S MOVE ON!

  6. #26
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve45 View Post
    ... Every year in the U.S. we lose ...
    You have seen this chart?

    http://greenhulk.net/forums/showthre...=1#post3068576

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve45 View Post
    I don't live in fear.
    I don`t think the people will be able to "move on" ,, they are so so scared now. Especially the seniors citizens, I see the husbands and wifes holding onto each other so tightly and avoiding being near people as they walk in the isles of the stores.

    This covid19 is going to be a game changer for sure.

  8. #28
    Click avatar for tech links/info K447's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by steve45 View Post
    ... the hysteria that has been generated .... In my view, the media is trying to create fear & panic ...
    Quote Originally Posted by K447 View Post
    Avoid news sources that focus on or force fit information into political angles. Delete them entirely from your intake.

    News itself is a mostly broken product. Especially, but not only, when advertising supported. Look for information and perspective, not news. Do not accept balanced, if balanced simply means presenting contrasting yet individually distorted positions.

    Look for information and perspective sources that are not free, perhaps not advertising supported at all. Include well respected sources that are based outside your home country, that can provide perspectives much less constrained by the tiresome left-right axis.

    Keep an open mind.
    It is unfortunate how damaged the product called 'news' has become. Has been broken for a long, long time.

    News is mostly a corrosive thing to ingest.

  9. +1 by:


  10. #29
    I agree you shouldn't be fearful but don't let your lack of fear inhibit you from practicing a sanitary social routine. It's still highly infectious and I've witnessed that personally.

    You're infectious with or without symptoms drastically longer than the seasonal flu. Be mindful of others during this time.

    You're right, many people will get this and recover without drastic measures.

    But... It's also true that on top of the seasonal flu, we have a virus that can also cause an admittance to the hospital for respiratory complications. We've already seen how taxing that can be in certain areas of the world.

    Without a shutdown, how would much worse could it have been in those areas? Probably significantly worse...

    We will have to learn to live with or without the virus, but slowing the spread is still critical to a functioning economy overall.

    Where you live may be looking great, but not every area on the planet is your hometown.

    If you want to compare the flu and COVID-19, compare the both of them together. They can both cause a taxing disruption in the medical industry along with every other medical emergency.

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  12. #30

    Who`s Boat Ramps Are Open? Who`s Are Closed?

    Quote Originally Posted by K447 View Post
    This is more a reply to the ideas rather than specific posters.

    Herd immunity effect for Covid-19 is unknown.
    Unknown whether it is even a thing for Covid-19.
    Unknown how long it might last in an individual, if it occurs.
    Unknown how consistent it might be, or not be, across different segments of the population.

    Right now, herd immunity is a wish. A risky bet. Not a certainty. And it comes with a high cost.

    Generally speaking, natural spread of a virus does not reach 100% of the population. If the herd immunity effect is strong then the spread tends (if it acts like prior coronaviruses) to level out circa 60-70% of the population. And then we live with the thing as yet another ongoing threat. Until an effective vacine is widely applied.

    Individual opinions are mostly irrelevant. Individual economic situations will vary, and some are certainly suffering a lot more than others.

    A primary factor is the spread aggression of the virus itself, which we are still grappling with understanding. We still do not have widespread testing in the US and therefore most of the data is incomplete and involves estimates and sometimes actually guessing.

    What IS fairly well understood is the degree to which infected carriers without symptoms and carrriers who do not yet feel ill can cause spread. Someone who is a carrier and moves around or interacts with lots of people can spread it widely. And then those victims, before they realize they are sick, further spread it around their families and others they connect with.

    Right now there is very limited ability to backtrack and identify the other people a spreader may have infected. It takes a lot of effort to do the back tracing and it is never 100%. The virus essentially travels wherever we go, when we go, and is good at being hard to nail down.

    That means that 'going back to work' when done across large groups of people will inevitably accelerate the spread. How much spread acceleration, how many more victims? Those are difficult questions.

    Essentially the question becomes - how many additional deaths and terribly ill people are worth the risk of releasing people to work, travel, and generally move around more? What is the math - individual income vs. death (of other people), GDP vs. sickness?

    Without effective and widely available treatment, without vaccine, without widely available testing, without herd immunity, how much economic pain is worth enduring to minimize deaths and serious illness for (many) thousands of other people?

    Right now we are in the middle of this thing. Not near the end. Every calcuation about 'too much' and 'too long' needs to include the math on 'acceptable' levels of future sickness and deaths.
    So like I said if u want to stay home- stay home for the rest of us we will go back to work. If someone is scared Of the spread just stay in your own damn house and Quit being so damn selfish just because you’re paranoid freak doesn’t mean everybody else is

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